Sparrow Data
Pick history — Colt Keith
Colt Keith
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 13 games across 13 nights, from 16 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.
Times picked
7graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
0against 0.72 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
0%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.094 | 1.50x | +park factor, +SP fly balls allowed | not yet graded |
| 2026-07-19 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.093 | 1.51x | +park factor, +SP career barrels allowed | not yet graded |
| 2026-08-05 | AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.087 | 1.20x | −SP career barrels allowed, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-16 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.079 | 1.12x | −park factor, +season barrel rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-08-17 | AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.080 | 1.31x | −SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed | no |
| 2026-08-22 | AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.071 | 1.24x | −park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-31 | AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.065 | 1.62x | −recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-01 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.065 | 1.62x | −SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-09-06 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.066 | 1.58x | −recent fly-ball rate, +park factor | no |
| 2026-09-07 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T5 · Longshot | 0.091 | 0.066 | 1.39x | −park factor, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| 2026-09-17 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.075 | 1.87x | +lineup slot, +recent hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-09-19 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.076 | 1.62x | +recent barrel rate, +lineup slot | no |
| 2026-09-21 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.075 | 1.56x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data