Sparrow Data

Pick history — Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 9 games across 9 nights, from 15 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.04 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

11%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-29	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.196	1.07x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-02	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.197	1.22x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-10	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.193	1.23x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.195	1.24x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-18	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-19	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.200	1.05x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-22	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.195	1.08x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-17	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.196	1.04x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data