Sparrow Data

Pick history — Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 6 games across 6 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.48 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-08	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-09	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-10	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.056	1.45x	+park factor, −career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-24	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data