Sparrow Data

Pick history — Jake Rogers

Jake Rogers

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 15 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 5 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.88 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

14%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-07	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.086	1.43x	+career barrel rate, −season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-08	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.085	1.45x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-08-09	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.085	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-17	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.121	0.085	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-19	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.085	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-21	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.085	1.45x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-08-28	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.099	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −lineup slot	no
2026-08-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-09-17	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data