Sparrow Data

Pick history — Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 10 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.54 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

14%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.211	0.96x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.211	0.96x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.199	1.14x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.192	1.10x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.200	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.199	0.96x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data