Sparrow Data

Pick history — Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 21 games across 21 nights, from 40 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 19 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 4.46 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

10%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-09	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.211	0.96x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.211	0.96x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-29	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.199	1.21x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.199	1.14x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-02	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.192	1.10x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-04	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.200	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.199	0.96x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-08-30	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.187	1.29x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.193	1.25x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.188	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.193	1.25x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-08	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.181	1.16x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.181	1.26x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-10	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.181	1.06x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-11	AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.181	1.16x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.181	1.33x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.174	1.21x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.181	1.33x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-23	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.167	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-24	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.167	1.12x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data