Sparrow Data

Pick history — Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 16 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.67 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

10%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-18	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.131	1.39x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-22	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.117	1.30x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-07-30	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.121	1.51x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.121	1.34x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.121	1.51x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-14	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.120	1.17x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data