Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-21

2026-09-21

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

3games
13picks
James Woodtop pick · 23%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 1 pick homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.1.
FAVORITES1 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.7 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TOR @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park66°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity82%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance18%
Air density1.206 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm69°67% rh5mph13% rain
7pm68°76% rh8mph11% rain
8pm67°81% rh9mph13% rain
9pm67°82% rh8mph18% rain
10pm66°82% rh9mph18% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.8% over normal 1.69x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-3.2% over normal 0.86x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +-1.9% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Coby MayoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +-1.0% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +-3.5% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Samuel BasalloBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +-2.6% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Trey Yesavage
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 1.18 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
WSH @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park56°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -3.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity83%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.212 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm60°71% rh9mph5% rain
7pm58°73% rh9mph6% rain
8pm57°75% rh8mph4% rain
9pm56°78% rh7mph2% rain
10pm56°83% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.4% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Colt KeithDETT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.1% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dillon DinglerDETT3 · Solid
we say 16% +-0.7% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
DJ Herz
lineup expected to homer 0.78 times vs 0.71 normally · MOUND
essentially neutral
3 HR allowed
MIN @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park57°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp57°F
Humidity96%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.222 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm56°100% rh10mph1% rain
10pm56°100% rh10mph1% rain
11pm57°97% rh9mph1% rain
12am57°91% rh7mph0% rain
1am57°90% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.5% over normal 1.22x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Victor BericotoSFT3 · Solid
we say 16% +-2.3% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Zebby Matthews
lineup expected to homer 0.82 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Blade Tidwell
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.76 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
2 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data