Sparrow Data

Pick history — Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 11 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.10 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

12%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-28	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.117	1.20x	−SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
2026-09-03	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.102	1.37x	+park factor, +recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-04	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.095	1.50x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-05	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.095	1.50x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-06	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.095	1.41x	+park factor, +season fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.095	1.41x	+park factor, +season fly-ball rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.101	1.33x	−SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-15	ELEVATED	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.101	1.32x	+park factor, +season fly-ball rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data