Sparrow Data

Pick history — Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 9 games across 9 nights, from 12 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.18 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

62%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-25	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.32x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-29	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-09-01	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.100	1.34x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.094	1.70x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-09-10	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.094	1.53x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.42x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.32x	+lineup slot, −career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.108	1.48x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
2026-09-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.114	1.43x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data