Sparrow Data

Pick history — Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights, from 8 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.59 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

17%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-09-08	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.270	1.06x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-09	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.267	1.09x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.259	0.93x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.249	1.17x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-13	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.239	1.01x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.239	1.01x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	FAVORITES	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.239	1.07x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data