Sparrow Data

Pick history — Austin Wells

Austin Wells

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights, from 18 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 7 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.18 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

14%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-17	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.128	1.38x	+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed	not yet graded
2026-07-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.128	1.27x	+park factor, −lineup slot	not yet graded
2026-08-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.25x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-27	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.25x	+park factor, −lineup slot	no
2026-09-02	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
2026-09-08	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.109	1.49x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-09	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.108	1.95x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-10	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.74x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-09-11	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.098	1.86x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-09-13	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.099	1.61x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data