Sparrow Data

Pick history — Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.39 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

43%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.211	1.00x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-08-20	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.196	0.98x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.196	0.96x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-25	AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.200	1.00x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-27	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.210	0.91x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.204	0.99x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.204	0.99x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data