Sparrow Data

Pick history — Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 5 games across 5 nights, from 7 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.60 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

20%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-19	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.089	1.39x	+SP career HR rate, −platoon edge	no
2026-08-21	AROUND SLATE, SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.089	1.39x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-02	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.087	1.61x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-13	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.082	1.05x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-17	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.080	1.54x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data