Sparrow Data

Pick history — Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 10 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.65 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

12%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-31	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.184	1.10x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-03	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.184	1.02x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-11	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.191	1.10x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-14	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.190	1.07x	+SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-16	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.190	1.11x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP fly balls allowed	no
2026-09-21	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.193	0.95x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-22	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE, FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.191	1.26x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-23	FAVORITES	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.191	1.10x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data