A career-long barrel hitter and barreling everything for two weeks.
6 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Fernando Tatis Jr. 21% to homer tonight, about 1 in 5. The market implies 27%. He faces the fly-ball-prone Bailey Ober. He hits the ball hard better than almost every hitter in the league. He also barrels the ball better than most of the league. He goes deep in about 1 of every 7 games. The park is neutral. 74°F, wind 3 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
A career hard-contact hitter and a heavy pull hitter.
No home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make José Ramírez 18% to homer tonight, about 1 in 6. The market implies 22%. He faces the homer-prone Tomoyuki Sugano. He hits the ball hard below average. He goes deep in about 1 of every 10 games. The park is neutral. 86°F, wind 8 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
The park plays big for his side and a career-long barrel hitter.
2 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Kyle Tucker 16% to homer tonight, about 1 in 6. The market implies 18%. He faces the homer-prone Lake Bachar. He hits the ball hard a little better than average. He goes deep in about 1 of every 10 games. The park helps. 78°F, wind 4 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Board generated 4:28 PM ET on 2026-08-23 for the 2026-08-23 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. These are the same picks posted before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record.
15games
41picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 25%
STL @ PHI1:35 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+3.1% carry
Temp82°F
Humidity45%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.160 kg/m³
Open-air park.
1pm78°69% rh9mph3% rain
2pm79°64% rh9mph1% rain
3pm81°53% rh10mph4% rain
4pm82°48% rh10mph0% rain
5pm82°45% rh9mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+1.5% over normal1.16xbarrel 2%hard-hit 50% · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Cristopher Sánchezconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.72 times vs 0.83 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
TOR @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+3.5% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity66%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.166 kg/m³
Open-air park.
1pm79°69% rh8mph3% rain
2pm78°70% rh9mph7% rain
3pm78°72% rh9mph11% rain
4pm79°69% rh9mph9% rain
5pm78°66% rh9mph5% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+5.5% over normal1.79xbarrel 6%hard-hit 49% · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
José Sorianoconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 1.38 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
TB @ BAL1:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park83°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+3.5% carry
Temp83°F
Humidity38%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.160 kg/m³
Open-air park.
1pm81°58% rh9mph0% rain
2pm83°44% rh9mph0% rain
3pm84°40% rh9mph0% rain
4pm84°39% rh9mph0% rain
5pm83°38% rh10mph2% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
1pm88°87% rh11mph1% rain
2pm90°67% rh12mph5% rain
3pm89°66% rh13mph8% rain
4pm88°70% rh9mph9% rain
5pm87°74% rh2mph18% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+2.1% over normal1.30xbarrel 4%hard-hit 43% · ATS
+SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
DET @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-1.0% carry
Temp82°F
Humidity30%
Wind5 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.138 kg/m³
Open-air park.
2pm83°28% rh3mph1% rain
3pm84°29% rh4mph3% rain
4pm83°29% rh6mph5% rain
5pm83°28% rh6mph8% rain
6pm82°30% rh5mph10% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+3.9% over normal1.27xbarrel 13%hard-hit 66% · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
Daniel Lynch IVconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
ATH @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park97°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+2.5% carry
Temp97°F
Humidity46%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.128 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
2pm92°56% rh3mph1% rain
3pm95°49% rh3mph1% rain
4pm97°43% rh3mph2% rain
5pm99°40% rh2mph4% rain
6pm97°46% rh9mph2% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+-0.2% over normal0.98xbarrel 5%hard-hit 49% · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
Nolan McLeanconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.10 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
LAA @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park106°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+3.2% carry
Temp106°F
Humidity22%
Wind13 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.090 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
2pm107°22% rh7mph0% rain
3pm108°21% rh9mph0% rain
4pm108°21% rh7mph0% rain
5pm108°21% rh9mph0% rain
6pm106°22% rh13mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+3.9% over normal1.29xbarrel 6%hard-hit 51% · ELEVATED
+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
Tomoyuki Suganoconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.97 times vs 0.75 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
SF @ BOS3:15 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.3% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity90%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.187 kg/m³
Open-air park.
3pm70°86% rh5mph36% rain
4pm71°82% rh3mph14% rain
5pm72°82% rh2mph7% rain
6pm72°84% rh2mph2% rain
7pm70°90% rh5mph6% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
4pm70°71% rh4mph1% rain
5pm71°65% rh5mph1% rain
6pm71°62% rh5mph1% rain
7pm69°65% rh5mph1% rain
8pm66°70% rh6mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 14%+3.1% over normal1.28xbarrel 8%hard-hit 52% · ATS
+recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
MIN @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park74°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.7% carry
Temp74°F
Humidity83%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.176 kg/m³
Open-air park.
4pm86°55% rh8mph1% rain
5pm84°57% rh7mph1% rain
6pm81°66% rh6mph1% rain
7pm77°76% rh6mph1% rain
8pm74°83% rh3mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 21%+7.5% over normal1.56xbarrel 14%hard-hit 57% · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
PIT @ LAD4:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+2.7% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity60%
Wind4 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.149 kg/m³
Open-air park.
4pm93°33% rh9mph0% rain
5pm90°36% rh9mph0% rain
6pm87°39% rh7mph0% rain
7pm83°47% rh5mph0% rain
8pm78°60% rh4mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
4pm114°13% rh5mph1% rain
5pm112°14% rh9mph2% rain
6pm110°14% rh9mph5% rain
7pm106°15% rh7mph4% rain
8pm103°16% rh5mph4% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+4.3% over normal2.01xbarrel 9%hard-hit 54% · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
ATL @ MIL7:10 PMJourney Bank Ballpark62°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — UNKNOWNcarry unknown
Temp62°F
Humidity75%
Wind3 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.190 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm69°69% rh5mph3% rain
8pm66°72% rh5mph1% rain
9pm64°78% rh8mph1% rain
10pm62°78% rh5mph3% rain
11pm62°75% rh3mph7% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+2.1% over normal1.22xbarrel 14%hard-hit 61% · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%
Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative — the same percentile cuts the matchup table uses, so a green cell means the same thing every night. Everything is coloured from the hitter's point of view.
The record
Written plainly on the boards; defined exactly in how to read our numbers. The intervals below are the full technical version.
Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.
How to read it.BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.
Rolling 30 days, by section
ELEVATED
1.32x95% CI [1.06, 1.57] · n=381 picks
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
SLEEPERS
0.67x95% CI [0.13, 1.30] · n=140 picks
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
AROUND SLATE
1.23x95% CI [0.94, 1.51] · n=351 picks
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
FAVORITES
0.82x95% CI [0.62, 1.02] · n=287 picks
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
MOUND SUPPRESS
0.73x95% CI [0.56, 0.92] · n=98 picks(inverted — below 1.00x is the win)
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
MOUND VULN
1.32x95% CI [1.01, 1.64] · n=43 picks
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
Since 2026-07-09, cumulative
Section
Picks
Home runs
Baseline expected
Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED
540
95
68.0
1.40x95% CI [1.14, 1.65] · n=540 picks
SLEEPERS
202
19
13.1
1.45x95% CI [0.84, 2.12] · n=202 picks
AROUND SLATE
502
79
56.0
1.41x95% CI [1.13, 1.69] · n=502 picks
FAVORITES
420
78
94.3
0.83x95% CI [0.67, 0.99] · n=420 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS
130
101
141.1
0.72x95% CI [0.58, 0.86] · n=130 picks
MOUND VULN
55
66
52.1
1.27x95% CI [1.01, 1.54] · n=55 picks
The calibration curve
Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1248 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.
Predicted range
Picks
Avg predicted
Actually homered
6%–10%
84
8.5%
8.3%
10%–14%
189
11.8%
10.1%
14%–18%
375
15.3%
16.3%
18%–25%
546
21.2%
18.5%
25%–101%
54
26.8%
14.8%
Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.
Most recent night
Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-23. Tonight's board (2026-08-23) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-22. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.
2130 published picks across 43 nights; 1849 graded so far.
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-22. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
