Facing a starter who doesn't miss bats and hitting near the top of the order.
2 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against left-handers this year he is well above average in exit velocity, 81st percentile, with the 49th in barrel rate and the 80th in expected slugging on contact. Nick Lodolo is where that plays: among qualified starters his fly balls leave the yard most often, 73rd percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 33rd percentile for launch angle allowed, the 48th for ground-ball rate, and the 59th for hard contact allowed. Conditions: a park that plays small for home runs, 92°F with 3 mph wind. We make him 16% to go deep, against the 12% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 11%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
The park plays big for his side and a career-long barrel hitter.
2 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against right-handers this year he is well above average in expected slugging on contact, 76th percentile, with the 70th in barrel rate and the 70th in exit velocity. Bubba Chandler is where that plays: among qualified starters he gives up the highest launch angles, 70th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 60th percentile for ground-ball rate, the 40th for hard contact allowed, and the 20th for home runs per fly ball. Conditions: a park that plays big for home runs, 67°F with 2 mph wind. We make him 16% to go deep, against the 12% he runs in a normal game.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
A career hard-contact hitter and a heavy pull hitter.
No home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against right-handers this year he is below average in expected slugging on contact, 35th percentile, with the 26th in barrel rate and the 32nd in exit velocity. Tanner Gordon is where that plays: among qualified starters he allows the hardest contact, 90th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 87th percentile for launch angle allowed, the 89th for ground-ball rate, and the 72nd for home runs per fly ball. Conditions: a park that plays neutral for home runs, 74°F with 6 mph wind. We make him 14% to go deep, against the 10% he runs in a normal game.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Board generated 11:34 AM ET on 2026-08-21 for the 2026-08-21 slate, from the projected lineups pass. These are the same picks posted before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record.
Projected lineups. Some of these bats may not start. The board is re-published on confirmed lineups before first pitch, and it is that version which gets graded.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 13%+3.5% over normal1.36xbarrel 6%hard-hit 53% · AROUND SLATE
+recent hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
PIT @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.5% carry
Temp67°F
Humidity90%
Wind2 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.176 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 16%+4.1% over normal1.34xbarrel 7%hard-hit 43% · AROUND SLATE
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
ATL @ MIL4:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+3.7% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity86%
Wind10 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+0.7% over normal1.08xbarrel 6%hard-hit 55% · AROUND SLATE
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
STL @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-1.1% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity92%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.193 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+3.8% over normal1.56xbarrel 11%hard-hit 48% · AROUND SLATE
+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
TOR @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-1.1% carry
Temp69°F
Humidity88%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.198 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+3.8% over normal1.61xbarrel 4%hard-hit 41% · AROUND SLATE
+pull tendency, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
SF @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-1.5% carry
Temp66°F
Humidity78%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.207 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+2.8% over normal1.19xbarrel 11%hard-hit 54% · AROUND SLATE
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
TB @ BAL7:15 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park73°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-1.3% carry
Temp73°F
Humidity68%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+3.2% over normal1.35xbarrel 8%hard-hit 46% · AROUND SLATE
+lineup slot, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Sean BurkeT1 · Sluggerprojected
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.72 normally · MOUND VULN
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
DET @ KC8:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-0.7% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity68%
Wind4 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 13%+1.5% over normal1.12xbarrel 6%hard-hit 67% · AROUND SLATE
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
Troy MeltonT1 · Sluggerprojected
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.88 normally · MOUND SUPPRESS
strong suppression spot
ATH @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+1.3% carry
Temp81°F
Humidity81%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 16%+3.3% over normal1.26xbarrel 12%hard-hit 50% · AROUND SLATE
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
LAA @ TEX8:15 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park92°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+2.1% carry
Temp92°F
Humidity34%
Wind5 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.122 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 14%+3.8% over normal1.37xbarrel 1%hard-hit 48% · AROUND SLATE
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
MIN @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.3% carry
Temp69°F
Humidity99%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.190 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 16%+4.2% over normal1.36xbarrel 8%hard-hit 48% · AROUND SLATE
+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%
Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative — the same percentile cuts the matchup table uses, so a green cell means the same thing every night. Everything is coloured from the hitter's point of view.
The record
Written plainly on the boards; defined exactly in how to read our numbers. The intervals below are the full technical version.
Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.
How to read it.BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.
Rolling 30 days, by section
ELEVATED
1.33x95% CI [1.06, 1.59] · n=374 picks
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
SLEEPERS
0.90x95% CI [0.34, 1.54] · n=137 picks
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
AROUND SLATE
1.21x95% CI [0.93, 1.51] · n=338 picks
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
FAVORITES
0.80x95% CI [0.61, 1.01] · n=282 picks
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
MOUND SUPPRESS
0.67x95% CI [0.51, 0.85] · n=97 picks(inverted — below 1.00x is the win)
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
MOUND VULN
1.38x95% CI [1.08, 1.69] · n=43 picks
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
Since 2026-07-09, cumulative
Section
Picks
Home runs
Baseline expected
Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED
513
91
64.8
1.41x95% CI [1.14, 1.67] · n=513 picks
SLEEPERS
188
19
12.3
1.54x95% CI [0.92, 2.23] · n=188 picks
AROUND SLATE
470
74
52.7
1.40x95% CI [1.12, 1.69] · n=470 picks
FAVORITES
396
74
88.9
0.83x95% CI [0.67, 1.00] · n=396 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS
122
90
132.4
0.68x95% CI [0.55, 0.82] · n=122 picks
MOUND VULN
52
64
49.4
1.30x95% CI [1.02, 1.57] · n=52 picks
The calibration curve
Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1175 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.
Predicted range
Picks
Avg predicted
Actually homered
6%–10%
77
8.5%
9.1%
10%–14%
173
11.7%
9.2%
14%–18%
358
15.3%
16.5%
18%–25%
515
21.2%
18.6%
25%–101%
52
26.9%
15.4%
Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.
Most recent night
Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-21. Tonight's board (2026-08-21) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-20. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.
2002 published picks across 41 nights; 1741 graded so far.
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-20. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
