A career-long barrel hitter and a career hard-contact hitter.
2 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against left-handers this year he is elite in expected slugging on contact, 90th percentile, with the 81st in barrel rate and the 83rd in exit velocity. Shane McClanahan is where that plays: among qualified starters he allows the hardest contact, 70th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 19th percentile for launch angle allowed, the 25th for ground-ball rate, and the 21st for home runs per fly ball. Conditions: a park that plays big for home runs, 72°F with 5 mph wind. We make him 18% to go deep, against the 11% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 18%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
The park plays big for his side and hitting near the top of the order.
No home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against right-handers this year he is above average in exit velocity, 70th percentile, with the 33rd in barrel rate and the 50th in expected slugging on contact. Andrew Painter is where that plays: among qualified starters his fly balls leave the yard most often, 85th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 62nd percentile for launch angle allowed, the 56th for ground-ball rate, and the 30th for hard contact allowed. Conditions: a park that plays big for home runs, 70°F with 4 mph wind. We make him 18% to go deep, against the 12% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 14%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
A career-long barrel hitter and squaring up nearly everything lately.
3 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against right-handers this year he is well above average in exit velocity, 81st percentile, with the 69th in barrel rate and the 71st in expected slugging on contact. Luis Castillo is where that plays: among qualified starters he allows the hardest contact, 72nd percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 67th percentile for launch angle allowed, the 66th for ground-ball rate, and the 67th for home runs per fly ball. Conditions: a park that plays neutral for home runs, 66°F with 6 mph wind. We make him 16% to go deep, against the 9% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 18%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Board generated 7:28 PM ET on 2026-08-22 for the 2026-08-22 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. These are the same picks posted before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record.
15games
41picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 25%
TOR @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-1.1% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity63%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.174 kg/m³
Open-air park.
1pm77°65% rh1mph1% rain
2pm77°62% rh4mph1% rain
3pm78°63% rh4mph1% rain
4pm78°60% rh7mph4% rain
5pm78°63% rh6mph5% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+5.4% over normal1.77xbarrel 6%hard-hit 47% · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
ATL @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+4.6% carry
Temp77°F
Humidity43%
Wind10 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.152 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
2pm78°58% rh12mph2% rain
3pm79°56% rh15mph8% rain
4pm79°47% rh15mph9% rain
5pm78°44% rh12mph4% rain
6pm77°43% rh10mph5% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
4pm90°68% rh8mph2% rain
5pm87°76% rh6mph5% rain
6pm88°66% rh5mph16% rain
7pm86°71% rh3mph20% rain
8pm79°81% rh13mph14% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
STL @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.2% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.189 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm75°81% rh7mph13% rain
7pm74°83% rh5mph6% rain
8pm72°88% rh4mph3% rain
9pm71°90% rh6mph2% rain
10pm70°92% rh4mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+5.1% over normal1.78xbarrel 10%hard-hit 46% · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, −platoon edge
1 home run in his last 15 games
LAA @ TEX7:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park93°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.9% carry
Temp93°F
Humidity31%
Wind5 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.120 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
7pm104°21% rh8mph2% rain
8pm101°19% rh6mph2% rain
9pm97°23% rh5mph2% rain
10pm94°28% rh5mph2% rain
11pm93°31% rh5mph2% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+4.4% over normal1.73xbarrel 11%hard-hit 43% · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
TB @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.2% carry
Temp72°F
Humidity90%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance21%
Air density1.182 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm74°84% rh4mph8% rain
8pm72°89% rh4mph10% rain
9pm73°89% rh7mph13% rain
10pm73°89% rh5mph21% rain
11pm72°90% rh5mph21% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+7.6% over normal1.71xbarrel 12%hard-hit 55% · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
Brandon Youngconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
ATH @ HOU7:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.0% carry
Temp81°F
Humidity80%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.161 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
7pm84°73% rh20mph0% rain
8pm83°76% rh12mph2% rain
9pm81°75% rh6mph2% rain
10pm82°84% rh5mph2% rain
11pm81°80% rh7mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
7pm68°65% rh8mph1% rain
8pm64°72% rh6mph1% rain
9pm62°75% rh4mph2% rain
10pm61°74% rh0mph2% rain
11pm62°77% rh4mph2% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 14%+3.9% over normal1.37xbarrel 8%hard-hit 53% · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +recent fly-ball rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
PIT @ LAD7:15 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+1.2% carry
Temp71°F
Humidity77%
Wind2 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.163 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm80°52% rh6mph0% rain
8pm76°60% rh5mph1% rain
9pm74°71% rh3mph0% rain
10pm72°76% rh3mph0% rain
11pm71°77% rh2mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+7.4% over normal1.68xbarrel 3%hard-hit 58% · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
Jared Jonesconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
DET @ KC7:15 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-2.6% carry
Temp72°F
Humidity66%
Wind5 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.158 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm82°50% rh5mph0% rain
8pm78°58% rh4mph0% rain
9pm75°61% rh5mph0% rain
10pm73°65% rh4mph0% rain
11pm72°66% rh5mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+1.7% over normal1.24xbarrel 6%hard-hit 43% · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Michael Wachaconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.62 times vs 0.74 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
SF @ BOS7:15 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.8% carry
Temp66°F
Humidity89%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.202 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm67°85% rh7mph2% rain
8pm66°87% rh6mph1% rain
9pm66°87% rh6mph1% rain
10pm66°87% rh5mph1% rain
11pm66°89% rh2mph3% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
8pm101°14% rh5mph1% rain
9pm98°14% rh4mph2% rain
10pm97°17% rh7mph1% rain
11pm95°20% rh5mph1% rain
12am94°22% rh5mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+4.6% over normal2.07xbarrel 10%hard-hit 55% · SLEEPERS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Michael Sorokaconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 1.16 times vs 1.30 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
MIN @ SD8:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.1% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity93%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.188 kg/m³
Open-air park.
8pm73°89% rh5mph0% rain
9pm72°90% rh3mph0% rain
10pm71°92% rh2mph0% rain
11pm70°92% rh2mph0% rain
12am70°93% rh2mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+4.7% over normal1.35xbarrel 15%hard-hit 55% · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%
Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative — the same percentile cuts the matchup table uses, so a green cell means the same thing every night. Everything is coloured from the hitter's point of view.
The record
Written plainly on the boards; defined exactly in how to read our numbers. The intervals below are the full technical version.
Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.
How to read it.BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.
Rolling 30 days, by section
ELEVATED
1.35x95% CI [1.08, 1.60] · n=383 picks
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
SLEEPERS
0.79x95% CI [0.24, 1.44] · n=138 picks
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
AROUND SLATE
1.23x95% CI [0.95, 1.52] · n=349 picks
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
FAVORITES
0.83x95% CI [0.63, 1.03] · n=284 picks
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
MOUND SUPPRESS
0.69x95% CI [0.53, 0.86] · n=97 picks(inverted — below 1.00x is the win)
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
MOUND VULN
1.38x95% CI [1.09, 1.69] · n=44 picks
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
Since 2026-07-09, cumulative
Section
Picks
Home runs
Baseline expected
Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED
526
93
66.3
1.40x95% CI [1.15, 1.67] · n=526 picks
SLEEPERS
194
19
12.7
1.50x95% CI [0.87, 2.16] · n=194 picks
AROUND SLATE
486
77
54.3
1.42x95% CI [1.13, 1.70] · n=486 picks
FAVORITES
407
77
91.4
0.84x95% CI [0.68, 1.01] · n=407 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS
126
94
136.7
0.69x95% CI [0.56, 0.83] · n=126 picks
MOUND VULN
54
66
51.0
1.29x95% CI [1.03, 1.56] · n=54 picks
The calibration curve
Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1210 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.
Predicted range
Picks
Avg predicted
Actually homered
6%–10%
80
8.5%
8.8%
10%–14%
182
11.8%
10.4%
14%–18%
367
15.3%
16.3%
18%–25%
528
21.2%
18.8%
25%–101%
53
26.8%
15.1%
Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.
Most recent night
Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-22. Tonight's board (2026-08-22) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-21. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.
2072 published picks across 42 nights; 1793 graded so far.
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-21. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
