Sparrow Data

Graded prediction archive

Tonight's board — 2026-08-19

Board generated 4:31 PM ET on 2026-08-19 for the 2026-08-19 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. 36 of 43 picks are on confirmed lineups. These are the same picks posted to Discord before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record below. No pick on this page is selected differently from the ones in the archive — it is the same board, published earlier.

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.135	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	projected	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Austin Riley	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Jonathan Aranda	TB	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.41x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP HR rate
Alec Burleson	STL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.147	1.24x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.144	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
Jac Caglianone	KC	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.146	1.25x	−park factor, +career barrel rate
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.103	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.125	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
William Contreras	MIL	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
Kyle Tucker	LAD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate
Brett Baty	NYM	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.108	1.41x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.107	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.31x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Christian Yelich	MIL	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.28x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
Trevor Larnach	MIN	projected	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
Jimmy Crooks	STL	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.092	1.46x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Connor Norby	COL	projected	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.076	1.61x	+career barrel rate, +park factor
Jakob Marsee	MIA	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.062	1.99x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
Xander Bogaerts	SD	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.089	1.39x	+SP career HR rate, −platoon edge
Connor Wong	BOS	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.065	1.82x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.070	1.68x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate
Jake Cronenworth	SD	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.068	1.54x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate
Luis Rengifo	SD	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.063	1.66x	+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.135	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	projected	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Austin Riley	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Jonathan Aranda	TB	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.41x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP HR rate
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.144	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
Jac Caglianone	KC	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.146	1.21x	−park factor, +career barrel rate
William Contreras	MIL	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
Kyle Tucker	LAD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.31x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
José Ramírez	CLE	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.111	1.26x	−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
Jimmy Crooks	STL	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.092	1.46x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate
Jakob Marsee	MIA	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.062	1.99x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
Oswald Peraza	LAA	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.092	1.27x	+SP career HR rate, −platoon edge
José Tena	WSH	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.081	1.45x	−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate
Jake Rogers	CWS	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.085	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Parker Messick	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.918	1.150	0.80x	elite suppression spot
Drew Rasmussen	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.883	1.040	0.85x	strong suppression spot
Paul Skenes	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.827	1.041	0.80x	elite suppression spot

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Robert Stock		confirmed	T1 · Slugger	1.290	1.031	1.25x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night

Results appear on this night's page once the games are final and graded.

The record

Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.

How to read it. BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.

Rolling 30 days, by section

ELEVATED

1.35x 95% CI [1.07, 1.62] · n=375 picks

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

SLEEPERS

1.13x 95% CI [0.46, 1.90] · n=137 picks

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

AROUND SLATE

1.22x 95% CI [0.94, 1.51] · n=340 picks

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

FAVORITES

0.83x 95% CI [0.64, 1.02] · n=287 picks

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

MOUND SUPPRESS

0.65x 95% CI [0.50, 0.80] · n=98 picks (inverted — below 1.00x is the win)

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

MOUND VULN

1.37x 95% CI [1.07, 1.68] · n=45 picks

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Since 2026-07-09, cumulative

Section	Picks	Home runs	Baseline expected	Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED	490	89	62.0	1.43x 95% CI [1.16, 1.71] · n=490 picks
SLEEPERS	178	19	11.6	1.64x 95% CI [0.98, 2.35] · n=178 picks
AROUND SLATE	449	72	50.4	1.43x 95% CI [1.12, 1.73] · n=449 picks
FAVORITES	379	73	85.1	0.86x 95% CI [0.69, 1.03] · n=379 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS	115	83	124.8	0.67x 95% CI [0.54, 0.80] · n=115 picks
MOUND VULN	50	63	47.3	1.33x 95% CI [1.06, 1.62] · n=50 picks

The calibration curve

Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1120 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.

Predicted range	Picks	Avg predicted	Actually homered
6%–10%	76	8.5%	9.2%
10%–14%	160	11.7%	9.4%
14%–18%	341	15.3%	16.7%
18%–25%	493	21.2%	19.3%
25%–101%	50	26.8%	16.0%

Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.

Most recent night

Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-19. Tonight's board (2026-08-19) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-18. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.

1919 published picks across 39 nights; 1661 graded so far.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-18. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data