Sparrow Data

Graded prediction archive

Tonight's board — 2026-08-18

Board generated 4:31 PM ET on 2026-08-18 for the 2026-08-18 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. 33 of 42 picks are on confirmed lineups. These are the same picks posted to Discord before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record below. No pick on this page is selected differently from the ones in the archive — it is the same board, published earlier.

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Willson Contreras	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
Jackson Merrill	SD	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.168	1.35x	+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
Francisco Alvarez	NYM	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.148	1.27x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Austin Riley	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.109	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Bryce Eldridge	SF	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.143	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Ty France	SD	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.142	1.24x	+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Kyle Tucker	LAD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
Josh Lowe	LAA	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.125	1.27x	+SP fly balls allowed, +park factor
Brady House	WSH	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
William Contreras	MIL	projected	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.31x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
Bo Bichette	NYM	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.091	1.55x	−pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed
Trevor Larnach	MIN	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.100	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Christopher Morel	NYM	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.085	1.68x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
Connor Norby	COL	projected	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.077	1.60x	+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	projected	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.069	1.78x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate
Luis Rengifo	SD	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.063	1.65x	+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
Victor Robles	SEA	confirmed	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.62x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
Lars Nootbaar	AZ	projected	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.041	1.94x	+pull tendency, −SP career HR rate

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
Bryce Eldridge	SF	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.143	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
Kyle Tucker	LAD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
Josh Lowe	LAA	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.125	1.27x	+SP fly balls allowed, +park factor
Brady House	WSH	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
Jesús Sánchez	TOR	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.127	1.21x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	projected	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.110	1.30x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	projected	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.069	1.78x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate
Henry Bolte	ATH	projected	T4 · The Field	0.111	0.091	1.23x	−park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
Blaze Jordan	STL	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.070	1.49x	+season barrel rate, −lineup slot
Braden Montgomery	CWS	confirmed	T5 · Longshot	0.091	0.084	1.08x	−career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
Jakob Marsee	MIA	confirmed	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.062	1.29x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Kevin Gausman	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	1.132	1.321	0.86x	strong suppression spot
Tyler Mahle	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	1.123	1.230	0.91x	lean suppression
José Soriano	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.901	1.077	0.84x	strong suppression spot
Braxton Ashcraft	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.872	1.013	0.86x	strong suppression spot

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Zach Thornton		confirmed	T1 · Slugger	1.347	1.049	1.28x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night

Results appear on this night's page once the games are final and graded.

The record

Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.

How to read it. BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.

Rolling 30 days, by section

ELEVATED

1.35x 95% CI [1.07, 1.61] · n=376 picks

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

SLEEPERS

1.35x 95% CI [0.59, 2.20] · n=138 picks

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

AROUND SLATE

1.27x 95% CI [0.96, 1.59] · n=341 picks

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

FAVORITES

0.84x 95% CI [0.65, 1.03] · n=289 picks

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

MOUND SUPPRESS

0.66x 95% CI [0.50, 0.82] · n=98 picks (inverted — below 1.00x is the win)

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

MOUND VULN

1.34x 95% CI [1.06, 1.64] · n=46 picks

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Since 2026-07-09, cumulative

Section	Picks	Home runs	Baseline expected	Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED	475	86	60.1	1.43x 95% CI [1.15, 1.72] · n=475 picks
SLEEPERS	174	19	11.3	1.68x 95% CI [1.01, 2.40] · n=174 picks
AROUND SLATE	436	69	49.0	1.41x 95% CI [1.10, 1.71] · n=436 picks
FAVORITES	370	70	83.2	0.84x 95% CI [0.67, 1.02] · n=370 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS	111	80	120.1	0.67x 95% CI [0.53, 0.81] · n=111 picks
MOUND VULN	49	61	46.2	1.32x 95% CI [1.05, 1.61] · n=49 picks

The calibration curve

Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1089 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.

Predicted range	Picks	Avg predicted	Actually homered
6%–10%	73	8.5%	9.6%
10%–14%	155	11.7%	9.7%
14%–18%	331	15.3%	16.9%
18%–25%	480	21.2%	19.0%
25%–101%	50	26.8%	16.0%

Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.

Most recent night

Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-18. Tonight's board (2026-08-18) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-17. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.

1867 published picks across 38 nights; 1615 graded so far.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-17. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data