Barreling everything for two weeks and a career-long barrel hitter.
No home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Bryan Reynolds 16% to homer tonight, about 1 in 6. The market implies 18%. He faces the fly-ball-leaning Robbie Ray. He hits the ball hard better than most of the league. He also barrels the ball better than most of the league. He goes deep in about 1 of every 9 games. The park is neutral. 69°F, wind 2 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
A career-long barrel hitter and a career hard-contact hitter.
6 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Fernando Tatis Jr. 18% to homer tonight, about 1 in 5. The market implies 18%. He faces the homer-prone Braxton Ashcraft. He hits the ball hard better than almost every hitter in the league. He also barrels the ball better than most of the league. He goes deep in about 1 of every 7 games. The park is neutral. 69°F, wind 2 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Hard contact all season and squaring up nearly everything lately.
6 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Pete Crow-Armstrong 23% to homer tonight, about 1 in 4. The market implies 23%. He faces the homer-prone Merrill Kelly. He does damage on contact as well as almost anyone in baseball. He also barrels the ball better than almost every hitter in the league. He goes deep in about 1 of every 5 games. The park hurts. 88°F, wind 4 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Board generated 4:31 PM ET on 2026-08-24 for the 2026-08-24 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. These are the same picks posted before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
6pm87°69% rh6mph5% rain
7pm84°69% rh7mph4% rain
8pm82°75% rh4mph3% rain
9pm81°75% rh3mph2% rain
10pm80°80% rh3mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+1.0% over normal1.10xbarrel 10%hard-hit 50% · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
Drew Rasmussenconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
COL @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-2.2% carry
Temp71°F
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.193 kg/m³
Open-air park.
6pm82°40% rh7mph5% rain
7pm79°41% rh7mph2% rain
8pm76°44% rh6mph1% rain
9pm72°47% rh4mph0% rain
10pm71°55% rh4mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
9pm66°68% rh5mph0% rain
10pm66°67% rh5mph0% rain
11pm65°65% rh5mph0% rain
12am64°64% rh2mph0% rain
1am63°64% rh2mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+4.1% over normal1.81xbarrel 2%hard-hit 32% · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, +platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
Robbie Rayprojected
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 0.88 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
MIN @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT-1.1% carry
Temp64°F
Humidity64%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.207 kg/m³
Open-air park.
9pm75°45% rh8mph0% rain
10pm72°48% rh8mph0% rain
11pm69°52% rh7mph0% rain
12am66°57% rh6mph0% rain
1am64°64% rh7mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
9pm95°19% rh4mph1% rain
10pm92°22% rh2mph1% rain
11pm91°24% rh5mph1% rain
12am90°26% rh5mph1% rain
1am88°27% rh4mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 14%+0.8% over normal1.06xbarrel 18%hard-hit 49% · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
Chase Burnsprojected
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%
Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative — the same percentile cuts the matchup table uses, so a green cell means the same thing every night. Everything is coloured from the hitter's point of view.
The record
Written plainly on the boards; defined exactly in how to read our numbers. The intervals below are the full technical version.
Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.
How to read it.BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.
Rolling 30 days, by section
ELEVATED
1.33x95% CI [1.07, 1.57] · n=378 picks
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
SLEEPERS
0.68x95% CI [0.12, 1.31] · n=139 picks
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
AROUND SLATE
1.24x95% CI [0.96, 1.53] · n=347 picks
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
FAVORITES
0.85x95% CI [0.66, 1.05] · n=288 picks
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
MOUND SUPPRESS
0.77x95% CI [0.60, 0.95] · n=98 picks(inverted — below 1.00x is the win)
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
MOUND VULN
1.29x95% CI [0.97, 1.62] · n=44 picks
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
Since 2026-07-09, cumulative
Section
Picks
Home runs
Baseline expected
Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED
552
96
69.5
1.38x95% CI [1.13, 1.63] · n=552 picks
SLEEPERS
208
19
13.5
1.40x95% CI [0.81, 2.08] · n=208 picks
AROUND SLATE
512
80
57.1
1.40x95% CI [1.14, 1.67] · n=512 picks
FAVORITES
431
80
96.6
0.83x95% CI [0.67, 0.99] · n=431 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS
134
106
145.4
0.73x95% CI [0.59, 0.87] · n=134 picks
MOUND VULN
57
66
54.0
1.22x95% CI [0.96, 1.50] · n=57 picks
The calibration curve
Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1279 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.
Predicted range
Picks
Avg predicted
Actually homered
6%–10%
86
8.5%
8.1%
10%–14%
197
11.8%
9.6%
14%–18%
383
15.3%
15.9%
18%–25%
558
21.2%
18.5%
25%–101%
55
26.8%
14.5%
Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.
Most recent night
Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-24. Tonight's board (2026-08-24) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-23. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.
2169 published picks across 44 nights; 1894 graded so far.
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-23. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
