A career-long barrel hitter and a career hard-contact hitter.
2 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against left-handers this year he is elite in expected slugging on contact, 90th percentile, with the 81st in barrel rate and the 83rd in exit velocity. Shane McClanahan is where that plays: among qualified starters he allows the hardest contact, 70th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 19th percentile for launch angle allowed, the 25th for ground-ball rate, and the 21st for home runs per fly ball. Conditions: a park that plays big for home runs, 73°F with 1 mph wind. We make him 18% to go deep, against the 11% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 18%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
The park plays big for his side and a heavy pull hitter.
No home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against left-handers this year he is above average in exit velocity, 73rd percentile, with the 51st in barrel rate and the 16th in expected slugging on contact. Tarik Skubal is where that plays: among qualified starters his fly balls leave the yard most often, 56th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 24th percentile for launch angle allowed, the 33rd for ground-ball rate, and the 35th for hard contact allowed. Conditions: a park that plays big for home runs, 70°F with 2 mph wind. We make him 18% to go deep, against the 11% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 14%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
The park plays big for his side and hitting near the top of the order.
No home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
Against right-handers this year he is above average in exit velocity, 70th percentile, with the 33rd in barrel rate and the 50th in expected slugging on contact. Andrew Painter is where that plays: among qualified starters his fly balls leave the yard most often, 85th percentile from a hitter's point of view. He is also in the 62nd percentile for launch angle allowed, the 56th for ground-ball rate, and the 30th for hard contact allowed. Conditions: a park that plays big for home runs, 70°F with 4 mph wind. We make him 18% to go deep, against the 12% he runs in a normal game; the market implies 15%.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Board generated 4:31 PM ET on 2026-08-22 for the 2026-08-22 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. These are the same picks posted before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record.
15games
42picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 25%
TOR @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-1.5% carry
Temp76°F
Humidity68%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.179 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+4.8% over normal1.38xbarrel 18%hard-hit 52% · AROUND SLATE
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
ATL @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+4.5% carry
Temp78°F
Humidity42%
Wind11 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
STL @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.6% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity93%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.188 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+6.6% over normal1.57xbarrel 8%hard-hit 48% · AROUND SLATE
+park factor, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
LAA @ TEX7:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park94°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+2.7% carry
Temp94°F
Humidity29%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.118 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+4.4% over normal1.73xbarrel 11%hard-hit 43% · AROUND SLATE
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
TB @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park73°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.5% carry
Temp73°F
Humidity91%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+7.6% over normal1.71xbarrel 12%hard-hit 55% · AROUND SLATE
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
Brandon YoungT1 · Sluggerconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND SUPPRESS
strong suppression spot
ATH @ HOU7:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+1.4% carry
Temp81°F
Humidity70%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 14%+3.9% over normal1.37xbarrel 8%hard-hit 53% · AROUND SLATE
+SP career HR rate, +recent fly-ball rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
PIT @ LAD7:15 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT+1.0% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity79%
Wind2 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.166 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+7.2% over normal2.43xbarrel 3%hard-hit 35% · AROUND SLATE
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Jared JonesT1 · Sluggerconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 1.39 times vs 1.20 normally · MOUND VULN
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
DET @ KC7:15 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park73°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-2.3% carry
Temp73°F
Humidity59%
Wind5 mph
Pressure986 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 9%+1.7% over normal1.24xbarrel 6%hard-hit 43% · AROUND SLATE
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Michael WachaT1 · Sluggerconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND SUPPRESS
strong suppression spot
SF @ BOS7:15 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park65°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-1.1% carry
Temp65°F
Humidity94%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.206 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+4.8% over normal1.85xbarrel 4%hard-hit 31% · AROUND SLATE
−career hard-hit rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
Michael SorokaT1 · Sluggerconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 0.99 normally · MOUND SUPPRESS
strong suppression spot
MIN @ SD8:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park70°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND+0.2% carry
Temp70°F
Humidity94%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.186 kg/m³
Open-air park.
No hourly detail for this game — the hourly table is a historical backfill and does not cover current slates. No precipitation is shown because no precipitation field is stored.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+4.7% over normal1.35xbarrel 15%hard-hit 55% · AROUND SLATE
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%
Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative — the same percentile cuts the matchup table uses, so a green cell means the same thing every night. Everything is coloured from the hitter's point of view.
The record
Written plainly on the boards; defined exactly in how to read our numbers. The intervals below are the full technical version.
Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.
How to read it.BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.
Rolling 30 days, by section
ELEVATED
1.35x95% CI [1.08, 1.60] · n=383 picks
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
SLEEPERS
0.79x95% CI [0.24, 1.44] · n=138 picks
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
AROUND SLATE
1.23x95% CI [0.95, 1.52] · n=349 picks
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
FAVORITES
0.83x95% CI [0.63, 1.03] · n=284 picks
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
MOUND SUPPRESS
0.69x95% CI [0.53, 0.86] · n=97 picks(inverted — below 1.00x is the win)
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
MOUND VULN
1.38x95% CI [1.09, 1.69] · n=44 picks
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
Since 2026-07-09, cumulative
Section
Picks
Home runs
Baseline expected
Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED
526
93
66.3
1.40x95% CI [1.15, 1.67] · n=526 picks
SLEEPERS
194
19
12.7
1.50x95% CI [0.87, 2.16] · n=194 picks
AROUND SLATE
486
77
54.3
1.42x95% CI [1.13, 1.70] · n=486 picks
FAVORITES
407
77
91.4
0.84x95% CI [0.68, 1.01] · n=407 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS
126
94
136.7
0.69x95% CI [0.56, 0.83] · n=126 picks
MOUND VULN
54
66
51.0
1.29x95% CI [1.03, 1.56] · n=54 picks
The calibration curve
Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1210 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.
Predicted range
Picks
Avg predicted
Actually homered
6%–10%
80
8.5%
8.8%
10%–14%
182
11.8%
10.4%
14%–18%
367
15.3%
16.3%
18%–25%
528
21.2%
18.8%
25%–101%
53
26.8%
15.1%
Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.
Most recent night
Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-22. Tonight's board (2026-08-22) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-21. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.
2075 published picks across 42 nights; 1793 graded so far.
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-21. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
