A career-long barrel hitter and facing a starter with a long home-run history.
5 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Fernando Tatis Jr. 20% to homer tonight, about 1 in 5. The market implies 24%. He goes deep in about 1 of every 7 games. The park is neutral. 68°F, wind 1 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
A career-long barrel hitter and a career hard-contact hitter.
2 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Nolan Gorman 17% to homer tonight, about 1 in 6. The market implies 13%. He faces the hittable Dustin May. He hits the ball hard better than most of the league. He also barrels the ball better than most of the league. He goes deep in about 1 of every 9 games. The park helps. 50°F, wind 5 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
The park plays big for his side and squaring up nearly everything lately.
4 home runs in his last 15 games
The full read
We make Jonathan Aranda 18% to homer tonight, about 1 in 5. The market implies 17%. He faces the home-run-prone Aaron Nola. He hits the ball hard better than almost every hitter in the league. He also does damage on contact better than almost every hitter in the league. He goes deep in about 1 of every 7 games. The park helps. 58°F, wind 11 mph.
Percentiles are against this season's qualified population — 30+ batted balls vs that hand for the hitter, 50+ for the pitcher — computed before tonight. Weather is context; it is not a model input.
Board generated 4:31 PM ET on 2026-09-26 for the 2026-09-26 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. These are the same picks posted before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.
3pm70°54% rh5mph0% rain
4pm70°56% rh6mph0% rain
5pm68°61% rh5mph0% rain
6pm67°59% rh3mph0% rain
7pm65°66% rh3mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
4pm83°59% rh4mph4% rain
5pm78°63% rh8mph6% rain
6pm80°69% rh5mph5% rain
7pm78°75% rh4mph10% rain
8pm77°74% rh5mph14% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 14%+3.6% over normal1.35xbarrel 4%hard-hit 53% · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
STL @ MIL7:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park50°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-3.8% carry
Temp50°F
Humidity80%
Wind5 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.221 kg/m³
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
7pm57°69% rh4mph0% rain
8pm55°74% rh5mph0% rain
9pm53°76% rh2mph0% rain
10pm52°77% rh3mph0% rain
11pm50°80% rh5mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 12%+3.1% over normal1.34xbarrel 2%hard-hit 40% · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
Michael Wachaconfirmed
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
COL @ CWS7:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park58°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-3.9% carry
Temp58°F
Humidity75%
Wind8 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.204 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm58°65% rh8mph0% rain
8pm58°68% rh8mph0% rain
9pm58°74% rh7mph0% rain
10pm58°72% rh7mph0% rain
11pm58°75% rh8mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+2.9% over normal1.39xbarrel 10%hard-hit 44% · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
TB @ PHI7:15 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park58°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN-5.6% carry
Temp58°F
Humidity82%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Rain chance9%
Air density1.212 kg/m³
Open-air park.
7pm58°85% rh12mph26% rain
8pm58°92% rh13mph17% rain
9pm58°89% rh13mph14% rain
10pm58°86% rh11mph8% rain
11pm58°82% rh11mph9% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 18%+3.9% over normal1.27xbarrel 10%hard-hit 58% · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
AZ @ SD8:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park68°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-0.4% carry
Temp68°F
Humidity92%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.191 kg/m³
Open-air park.
8pm72°84% rh4mph0% rain
9pm71°86% rh3mph1% rain
10pm70°90% rh2mph2% rain
11pm70°91% rh3mph1% rain
12am68°92% rh1mph1% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.
9pm50°79% rh5mph0% rain
10pm49°75% rh5mph0% rain
11pm48°79% rh5mph0% rain
12am48°80% rh5mph0% rain
1am48°80% rh6mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 10%+4.3% over normal1.71xbarrel 4%hard-hit 45% · SLEEPERS · ATS
+pull tendency, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
Kade Andersonprojected
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 0.80 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
HOU @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park59°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND-3.3% carry
Temp59°F
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.217 kg/m³
Open-air park.
9pm65°53% rh5mph0% rain
10pm63°57% rh4mph0% rain
11pm62°60% rh4mph0% rain
12am60°62% rh3mph0% rain
1am59°63% rh5mph0% rain
Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.
we say 16%+3.2% over normal1.25xbarrel 13%hard-hit 54% · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
bottom 10%10–30%middle 40%70–90%top 10%
Colour is league-relative, not slate-relative — the same percentile cuts the matchup table uses, so a green cell means the same thing every night. Everything is coloured from the hitter's point of view.
The record
Written plainly on the boards; defined exactly in how to read our numbers. The intervals below are the full technical version.
Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.
How to read it.BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.
Rolling 30 days, by section
ELEVATED
1.40x95% CI [1.10, 1.71] · n=372 picks
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
SLEEPERS
1.31x95% CI [0.69, 2.00] · n=136 picks
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
AROUND SLATE
1.68x95% CI [1.37, 2.01] · n=349 picks
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
FAVORITES
0.89x95% CI [0.67, 1.13] · n=290 picks
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
MOUND SUPPRESS
0.85x95% CI [0.68, 1.03] · n=111 picks(inverted — below 1.00x is the win)
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
MOUND VULN
1.32x95% CI [0.96, 1.73] · n=34 picks
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
Since 2026-07-09, cumulative
Section
Picks
Home runs
Baseline expected
Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED
971
168
121.4
1.38x95% CI [1.20, 1.57] · n=971 picks
SLEEPERS
364
33
24.0
1.37x95% CI [0.95, 1.83] · n=364 picks
AROUND SLATE
903
151
99.6
1.52x95% CI [1.32, 1.72] · n=903 picks
FAVORITES
760
142
166.7
0.85x95% CI [0.72, 0.99] · n=760 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS
259
211
276.4
0.76x95% CI [0.66, 0.87] · n=259 picks
MOUND VULN
99
119
96.0
1.24x95% CI [1.03, 1.47] · n=99 picks
The calibration curve
Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (2236 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.
Predicted range
Picks
Avg predicted
Actually homered
6%–10%
139
8.5%
8.6%
10%–14%
348
11.7%
10.6%
14%–18%
689
15.2%
16.8%
18%–25%
978
21.1%
18.4%
25%–101%
82
26.8%
14.6%
Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.
Most recent night
Full board for the most recent night: 2026-09-26. Tonight's board (2026-09-26) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-09-25. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.
3795 published picks across 77 nights; 3356 graded so far.
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data
