Sparrow Data

Graded prediction archive

Tonight's board — 2026-08-17

Board generated 9:12 PM ET on 2026-08-17 for the 2026-08-17 slate, from the mixed — confirmed, morning pass. 25 of 37 picks are on confirmed lineups. These are the same picks posted to Discord before first pitch; they are graded tomorrow morning and roll into the record below. No pick on this page is selected differently from the ones in the archive — it is the same board, published earlier.

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	projected	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.231	1.22x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
Willson Contreras	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.195	1.24x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
Max Muncy	LAD	projected	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.170	1.42x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
Kyle Tucker	LAD	projected	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.151	1.34x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.111	1.65x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
Austin Riley	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.109	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Alec Burleson	STL	projected	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.23x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
Alec Burleson	STL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.23x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
Jac Caglianone	KC	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.24x	−park factor, +career barrel rate
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
Brett Baty	NYM	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.108	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
JJ Wetherholt	STL	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.32x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate
Jimmy Crooks	STL	projected	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.092	1.55x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate
Randal Grichuk	CWS	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
Michael Toglia	CIN	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.39x	+career barrel rate, +park factor

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Ke'Bryan Hayes	CIN	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.083	1.61x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate
Jake Rogers	CWS	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.121	0.085	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
Blaze Jordan	STL	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.072	1.62x	+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate
Tommy Edman	LAD	projected	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.089	1.31x	+SP career barrels allowed, −career barrel rate
Luis Arraez	PHI	confirmed	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
Masyn Winn	STL	confirmed	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.043	1.88x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Kyle Tucker	LAD	projected	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.111	1.83x	+SP career barrels allowed, +career barrel rate
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.151	1.34x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
Austin Riley	ATL	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.109	1.67x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
Jac Caglianone	KC	confirmed	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.24x	−park factor, +career barrel rate
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	projected	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
Jonathan Aranda	TB	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.132	1.09x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
Jimmy Crooks	STL	projected	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.092	1.55x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate
Randal Grichuk	CWS	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
J.T. Realmuto	PHI	confirmed	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.112	1.26x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
Ke'Bryan Hayes	CIN	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.083	1.61x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate
Colt Keith	DET	confirmed	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.080	1.31x	−SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Blake Snell	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.900	1.059	0.85x	strong suppression spot
Framber Valdez	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.893	1.024	0.87x	strong suppression spot
Michael Wacha	confirmed	T1 · Slugger	0.771	0.887	0.87x	strong suppression spot

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Lineup	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why
Tomoyuki Sugano		confirmed	T1 · Slugger	1.320	1.057	1.25x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night

Results appear on this night's page once the games are final and graded.

The record

Every pick this model has published since 2026-07-09, and how each one graded. The boards are posted before first pitch and graded the next morning against what actually happened. Misses are shown exactly as prominently as hits — that is the point of publishing this.

How to read it. BASE is how often this bat homers in a normal game. PROB is tonight, given the pitcher, the park and the weather. The gap between them is the entire product — a high PROB on a slugger is not a finding, a high PROB on a bat whose BASE is low is. Ratios below compare home runs actually hit against what those same bats' baselines expected: 1.00x means the picks did exactly what ordinary bats would have.

Rolling 30 days, by section

ELEVATED

1.40x 95% CI [1.10, 1.72] · n=376 picks

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

SLEEPERS

1.38x 95% CI [0.62, 2.25] · n=136 picks

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

AROUND SLATE

1.33x 95% CI [1.01, 1.65] · n=346 picks

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

FAVORITES

0.81x 95% CI [0.62, 1.00] · n=288 picks

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

MOUND SUPPRESS

0.65x 95% CI [0.50, 0.81] · n=99 picks (inverted — below 1.00x is the win)

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

MOUND VULN

1.34x 95% CI [1.05, 1.64] · n=46 picks

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Since 2026-07-09, cumulative

Section	Picks	Home runs	Baseline expected	Realized vs baseline
ELEVATED	461	82	58.1	1.41x 95% CI [1.13, 1.70] · n=461 picks
SLEEPERS	169	19	11.0	1.73x 95% CI [1.06, 2.46] · n=169 picks
AROUND SLATE	427	68	47.9	1.42x 95% CI [1.11, 1.73] · n=427 picks
FAVORITES	359	67	80.8	0.83x 95% CI [0.66, 1.01] · n=359 picks
MOUND SUPPRESS	108	77	117.1	0.66x 95% CI [0.52, 0.80] · n=108 picks
MOUND VULN	48	59	45.2	1.31x 95% CI [1.02, 1.60] · n=48 picks

The calibration curve

Of the bats we said had a ~14% chance, did about 14% homer? This is the claim nobody else publishes, and it is the one that cannot be cherry-picked. Every graded pick on a batter board is here (1059 picks, deduplicated across sections). Buckets with fewer than 50 picks are greyed — they are too small to read.

Predicted range	Picks	Avg predicted	Actually homered
6%–10%	71	8.5%	9.9%
10%–14%	150	11.7%	10.0%
14%–18%	326	15.3%	16.9%
18%–25%	465	21.2%	19.1%
25%–101%	47	26.8%	14.9%

Upper bar = predicted, lower = actual. A well-calibrated model has them close in every row that has enough picks to judge.

Most recent night

Full board for the most recent night: 2026-08-17. Tonight's board (2026-08-17) is published but not yet graded; grading runs the following morning. The most recent fully graded night is 2026-08-16. Every night since 2026-07-09 has its own permanent page in the daily archive.

1815 published picks across 37 nights; 1572 graded so far.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data